Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) aims to reduce the Business-As-Usual (BAU) emissions in its power generation sector by 28.7 MtCO2-e by the year 2030 according to its National Determined Contribution (NDC). Based on current published data, there appears to be a gap in quantifying the activity level and carbon intensity of planned actions to meet this target. Through two scenarios, this seminar will explore the impacts of power plant dispatch optimisation and new zero-carbon energy additions for T&T through adaptations of a widely used method called Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis (CEPA). CEPA has been widely adapted worldwide for macro-scaled planning insights into large countries and regions but is yet applied to smaller countries, whose energy fuel usage may not necessarily be as diverse. The research conducted aims to address this using T&T’s unique case to apply the CEPA methodology. Mitigation assessments were conducted through optimisation scenarios using gathered local power plant data.

A first of its kind published national grid emission factor (GEF) of 0.56 MtCO2-e/TWh was determined using an internationally accepted methodology. The discretised GEF was utilised to project a BAU case to benchmark emission limits for each scenario. Both simulated scenarios represent hypothetical cases of actions T&T would need to adopt to achieve carbon reduction. Scenario 1 (S1) determined T&T would achieve 8% of the NDC target if the existing supply is optimised in the years 2022 to 2030 through the compounded pinch points. To achieve the NDC target, Scenario 2 (S2) determined that at least 47% of T&T’s grid energy needs to come from zero-emission carbon sources by 2022. This would equate to required capacities of 2,169 MW of solar photovoltaic or 1,549 MW of onshore wind using the most recent published capacity factors and a decrease in the BAU GEF by 43%.