The rise in global temperatures, primarily driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector, has intensified climate-related risks, including sea level rise, extreme weather events and ecosystem degradation, posing significant risks to socio-economic systems. In response, international frameworks such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement (PA) urge countries to develop and regularly update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), setting GHG reduction targets aligned with long-term sustainable development objectives.

 

Trinidad and Tobago, while contributing less than 1% of global emissions, ranks among the highest CO? emitters per capita due to its fossil fuel-based economy. Its 2018 NDC outlines both conditional and unconditional targets across key sectors, power, industrial and transportation, using a Basic Input/Output System (BIOS) model. However, the BIOS model lacks the resolution to adequately capture sector-specific dynamics and socioeconomic feedbacks, which limits its effectiveness for policy planning.

 

This research presents an integrated modelling framework that enhances the granularity, transparency and policy relevance of national GHG forecasting and mitigation planning in Trinidad and Tobago. A Vector Autoregression (VAR) diagnostic modelling tool was first used to construct an empirically based Business-as-Usual (BAU) or baseline emissions trajectory, incorporating GDP and population trends. This forecasting baseline will serve as a reference point for evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation strategies developed using the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Model (GACMO), a well-established tool for simulating GHG emissions reduction pathways. The GACMO tool will be applied to model a range of mitigation scenarios and assess the cost-effectiveness of targeted policy interventions within the residential consumption and road transportation sectors, two historically under-researched yet critical contributors to Trinidad and Tobago’s overall GHG emissions.

 

By integrating diagnostic econometric modelling with bottom-up mitigation analysis, this study provides a comprehensive framework for assessing the technical viability, economic sustainability and policy relevance of mitigation strategies. In addition to strengthening Trinidad and Tobago’s ability to create transparent and empirically grounded NDCs, the methodology offers a transferable approach for other developing countries with a comparable profile, which can be utilised to align their national climate action with the demands for sustainable development.