Global temperatures have risen sharply in recent decades, largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from industrial activity, with the energy sector as a primary contributor. This trend has intensified climate-related impacts such as sea level rise, extreme weather events, and ecosystem degradation, posing risks to socio-economic systems. In response, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 2015 Paris Agreement urge countries to develop and regularly update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), setting GHG reduction targets aligned with sustainable development objectives.

 

Trinidad and Tobago, though contributing less than 1% of global emissions, ranks among the highest per capita CO₂ emitters due to its oil- and gas-based economy. Its 2018 NDC outlines both conditional and unconditional emissions reduction targets for the power, industrial and transportation sectors, based on a Basic Input/Output System (BIOS) model. However, the BIOS model lacks sectoral detail and does not adequately account for the impact of socioeconomic drivers, limiting its effectiveness for policy planning.

This research addresses these gaps by providing more granular, data-driven insights using diagnostic modelling tools such as Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), among others, to forecast a scientifically grounded Business-as-Usual (BAU) or baseline emissions scenario for Trinidad and Tobago, incorporating the cointegration of key drivers. It then applies a well-established mitigation modelling tool—the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Model (GACMO)—to simulate mitigation scenarios and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various policy interventions.

 

This study aims to systematically assess Trinidad and Tobago's current emissions profile, specifically within the residential consumption and road transportation sectors, to strengthen the country's capacity to develop transparent, data-driven and impactful NDCs. It also seeks to generate actionable policy recommendations that support the effective implementation of low-carbon development strategies. Though the study focuses on Trinidad and Tobago, the approach can be useful for many other similar developing countries.